About me

I'm Greg. Before I ever made a prediction, I fought.

I competed in taekwondo from 2002 to 2012. I earned my black belt, won nine national titles and a Balkan title, and took medals at European opens like the Belgrade Open and the Sofia Open. Along the way I also boxed and fought in amateur MMA events. In 2012 I moved to another country for university, and that was the end of my competing days.

It wasn't the end of watching. I watch almost every UFC event, live or the morning after, and I follow the roster the way some people follow their fantasy team: who's rising, who's slowing down, who's coming off a layoff, who just took a fight on short notice.

Why the numbers matter to me

Ten years of competing teaches you that the fighter who looks better isn't always the one who wins. Records lie, hype lies, and one highlight knockout can hide three bad rounds. So I don't trust my eye alone. Every pick on this site starts with numbers, and then I add what the numbers can't see.

How I make a pick

Two models sit behind every fight. The first is the site model: an Elo rating built from every UFC fight on record, tested only on fights it never saw. That's the win probability you see on every bout. The second is my own model, around 43 parameters per fighter, from damage differential and takedown defense to how output holds up in round three. It's the same framework I use for my Dota 2 predictions. Then I make the call, and when I go against the site model, the pick is marked that way. Everything that goes into both is on the model page.

No backdating. No excuses.

Every pick is locked before the card starts, with the model's number frozen next to it. Once it's published I can't change it, hide it or delete it. Wins and losses stay on the track record next to the model's record on the same fights, so you can judge me on all of it, not just the good nights.

Also by me

I also run Dota2ProTips, where I've been doing the same thing for pro Dota 2: every series predicted before it starts, every result graded in public. Same rules, different game. My story on that side.

The fine print

MMA ProTips isn't affiliated with the UFC. Fight data comes from public UFC sources via the CITO API. My picks and the model's numbers are opinions and estimates, not guarantees. If you bet, only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+.