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UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Magomedov

Israel Adesanya vs Shara Magomedov

Date
Saturday, December 5, 2026
Start
1:00 PM EST
Venue
The Venue, Riyadh Saudi Arabia
Bouts
12

Main Card

MiddleweightLean
Israel Adesanya
Adesanya24-6-0
41%59%
Shara Magomedov
Magomedov17-1-0

How it ends

Adesanya

KO/TKO12%
Submission1%
Decision28%

Magomedov

KO/TKO26%
Submission4%
Decision29%

Goes the distance: 57%

What drives the number

  • Age (37 vs 32) favors Magomedov
  • Reach (80" vs 73") favors Adesanya
  • Durability (4 vs 0 stoppage losses) favors Magomedov
  • Striking matchup (-0.5 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Magomedov
  • Time since last fight (8 mo vs 5 mo) favors Magomedov

Tale of the tape

37Age32
6'4"Height6'2"
80"Reach73"
SwitchStanceOrthodox
1659Elo1661
4.03Strikes landed / min5.55
3.22Strikes absorbed / min3.62
56%Striking defense45%
0.05Takedowns / 15 min0.00
76%Takedown defense73%
WelterweightLean
Ian Machado Garry
Garry17-2-0
58%42%
Yaroslav Amosov
Amosov30-1-0

How it ends

Garry

KO/TKO18%
Submission3%
Decision37%

Amosov

KO/TKO7%
Submission15%
Decision20%

Goes the distance: 57%

What drives the number

  • Elo rating (1750 vs 1648) favors Garry
  • Grappling matchup (-3.8 takedown/sub threat per 15 min) favors Amosov
  • Striking matchup (+1.0 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Garry
  • Age (28 vs 32) favors Garry
  • Time since last fight (4 mo vs 7 mo) favors Garry

Tale of the tape

28Age32
6'3"Height6'0"
74.5"Reach75"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
1750Elo1648
4.29Strikes landed / min2.65
2.59Strikes absorbed / min1.38
53%Striking defense61%
0.80Takedowns / 15 min11.11
71%Takedown defense0%
HeavyweightSolid
Serghei Spivac
Spivac18-7-0
31%69%
Mario Pinto
Pinto13-0-0

How it ends

Spivac

KO/TKO10%
Submission9%
Decision12%

Pinto

KO/TKO50%
Submission2%
Decision18%

Goes the distance: 29%

What drives the number

  • Elo rating (1603 vs 1683) favors Pinto
  • Grappling matchup (-2.3 takedown/sub threat per 15 min) favors Pinto
  • Striking matchup (-1.0 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Pinto
  • Durability (4 vs 0 stoppage losses) favors Pinto
  • Age (31 vs 28) favors Pinto

Tale of the tape

31Age28
6'3"Height6'5"
78"Reach79"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
1603Elo1683
3.35Strikes landed / min3.68
4.23Strikes absorbed / min1.98
51%Striking defense59%
3.42Takedowns / 15 min4.41
53%Takedown defense100%
WelterweightLean
Levan Chokheli
Chokheli15-3-0
58%42%
Islam Dulatov
Dulatov12-1-0

How it ends

Chokheli

KO/TKO27%
Submission9%
Decision21%

Dulatov

KO/TKO24%
Submission6%
Decision13%

Goes the distance: 34%

What drives the number

  • Striking matchup (+17.4 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Chokheli
  • Time since last fight (6 mo vs 17 mo) favors Chokheli
  • Elo rating (1559 vs 1581) favors Dulatov
  • Grappling matchup (-2.2 takedown/sub threat per 15 min) favors Dulatov

Tale of the tape

29Age28
6'0"Height6'3"
—Reach75"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
1559Elo1598
15.65Strikes landed / min8.78
0.00Strikes absorbed / min4.24
100%Striking defense50%
0.00Takedowns / 15 min2.20
0%Takedown defense100%
LightweightLean
Mairon Santos
Santos18-1-0
58%42%
Akbar Abdullaev
Abdullaev14-0-0

How it ends

Santos

KO/TKO24%
Submission6%
Decision28%

Abdullaev

KO/TKO20%
Submission7%
Decision16%

Goes the distance: 43%

What drives the number

  • Elo rating (1649 vs 1560) favors Santos
  • Time since last fight (12 mo vs 3 mo) favors Abdullaev

Tale of the tape

—Age28
—Height—
—Reach—
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
1649Elo1560
0.00Strikes landed / min9.47
0.00Strikes absorbed / min0.00
0%Striking defense100%
0.00Takedowns / 15 min0.00
0%Takedown defense0%
Light HeavyweightLean
Magomed Tuchalov
Tuchalov7-0-0
60%40%
Ion Cutelaba
Cutelaba20-12-1

How it ends

Tuchalov

KO/TKO18%
Submission16%
Decision25%

Cutelaba

KO/TKO16%
Submission9%
Decision15%

Goes the distance: 40%

What drives the number

  • Grappling matchup (+2.3 takedown/sub threat per 15 min) favors Tuchalov
  • Age (26 vs 32) favors Tuchalov
  • Durability (0 vs 8 stoppage losses) favors Tuchalov
  • Elo rating (1544 vs 1537) favors Tuchalov
  • Recent form (W vs L-W-L) favors Tuchalov

Tale of the tape

26Age32
6'5"Height6'1"
—Reach75"
OrthodoxStanceSouthpaw
1544Elo1537
2.33Strikes landed / min4.13
2.60Strikes absorbed / min3.42
67%Striking defense46%
8.00Takedowns / 15 min4.02
100%Takedown defense76%
FlyweightLean
Bruno Silva
Silva15-9-2
40%60%
Jafel Filho
Filho17-5-0

How it ends

Silva

KO/TKO12%
Submission17%
Decision10%

Filho

KO/TKO18%
Submission27%
Decision15%

Goes the distance: 26%

What drives the number

  • Age (36 vs 33) favors Filho
  • Elo rating (1504 vs 1546) favors Filho
  • Striking matchup (+2.4 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Silva
  • Reach (65" vs 68.5") favors Filho
  • Grappling matchup (-0.5 takedown/sub threat per 15 min) favors Filho

Tale of the tape

36Age33
5'4"Height5'7"
65"Reach68.5"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
1504Elo1546
3.95Strikes landed / min1.78
4.72Strikes absorbed / min1.76
51%Striking defense51%
1.94Takedowns / 15 min2.40
72%Takedown defense50%
Light HeavyweightCoin flip
Uran Satybaldiev
Satybaldiev9-1-0
47%53%
IG
Gnizditskiy5-0-0

How it ends

Satybaldiev

KO/TKO13%
Submission17%
Decision17%

Gnizditskiy

KO/TKO15%
Submission8%
Decision30%

Goes the distance: 47%

What drives the number

  • Time since last fight (15 mo vs debut) favors Gnizditskiy
  • Elo rating (1515 vs 1500) favors Satybaldiev
  • Age (32 vs 30) favors Gnizditskiy

At least one fighter has no UFC history yet — low confidence.

Tale of the tape

32Age30
6'4"Height—
79"Reach—
OrthodoxStance—
1518Elo—
MiddleweightLean
Marco Tulio
Tulio14-3-0
58%42%
JunYong Park
Park19-7-0

How it ends

Tulio

KO/TKO29%
Submission7%
Decision22%

Park

KO/TKO5%
Submission9%
Decision28%

Goes the distance: 50%

What drives the number

  • Age (32 vs 35) favors Tulio
  • Striking matchup (+2.1 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Tulio
  • Grappling matchup (-1.5 takedown/sub threat per 15 min) favors Park
  • Elo rating (1572 vs 1592) favors Park
  • Time since last fight (7 mo vs 13 mo) favors Tulio

Tale of the tape

32Age35
6'0"Height5'10"
74.5"Reach73"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
1572Elo1597
6.02Strikes landed / min4.64
2.97Strikes absorbed / min3.82
57%Striking defense51%
1.05Takedowns / 15 min1.69
0%Takedown defense55%
BantamweightSolid
Pavel Andrusca
Andrusca9-0-0
67%33%
Mahammadali Osmanli
Osmanli13-2-0

How it ends

Andrusca

KO/TKO18%
Submission11%
Decision38%

Osmanli

KO/TKO11%
Submission7%
Decision15%

Goes the distance: 53%

What drives the number

  • Elo rating (1570 vs 1452) favors Andrusca
  • Grappling matchup (+2.5 takedown/sub threat per 15 min) favors Andrusca
  • Reach (66.5" vs 71.5") favors Osmanli
  • Striking matchup (+1.8 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Andrusca
  • Recent form (W vs L) favors Andrusca

Tale of the tape

24Age22
5'7"Height5'10"
66.5"Reach71.5"
OrthodoxStanceSouthpaw
1570Elo1452
3.33Strikes landed / min2.59
1.87Strikes absorbed / min2.59
67%Striking defense50%
4.00Takedowns / 15 min0.00
0%Takedown defense50%
MiddleweightSolid
Modestino Rodrigues
Rodrigues8-1-0
65%35%
Matthieu Duclos
Duclos11-3-0

How it ends

Rodrigues

KO/TKO40%
Submission8%
Decision18%

Duclos

KO/TKO16%
Submission5%
Decision13%

Goes the distance: 31%

What drives the number

  • Striking matchup (+35.6 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Rodrigues
  • Age (22 vs 31) favors Rodrigues
  • Elo rating (1549 vs 1530) favors Rodrigues
  • Durability (0 vs 1 stoppage losses) favors Rodrigues
  • Reach (77.5" vs 76.5") favors Rodrigues

Tale of the tape

22Age31
6'3"Height6'4"
77.5"Reach76.5"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
1549Elo1530
32.00Strikes landed / min3.93
0.00Strikes absorbed / min6.06
100%Striking defense50%
0.00Takedowns / 15 min0.00
0%Takedown defense100%
BantamweightCoin flip
Abdul Hussein
Hussein16-2-0
48%52%
Hecher Sosa
Sosa15-1-0

How it ends

Hussein

KO/TKO13%
Submission17%
Decision18%

Sosa

KO/TKO12%
Submission7%
Decision33%

Goes the distance: 51%

What drives the number

  • Elo rating (1552 vs 1579) favors Sosa
  • Striking matchup (-1.2 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Sosa
  • Grappling matchup (+0.9 takedown/sub threat per 15 min) favors Hussein
  • Time since last fight (4 mo vs 9 mo) favors Hussein
  • Age (29 vs 31) favors Hussein

Tale of the tape

29Age31
5'5"Height5'9"
—Reach70"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
1552Elo1579
4.96Strikes landed / min4.53
3.35Strikes absorbed / min2.50
46%Striking defense62%
1.14Takedowns / 15 min2.00
67%Takedown defense69%