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UFC Fight Night: Prochazka vs Stirling

Jiří Procházka vs Navajo Stirling

Date
Saturday, November 21, 2026
Start
10:00 AM EST
Venue
ABHA Arena, Doha Qatar
Bouts
9

Main Card

Light HeavyweightSolid
Jiří Procházka
Procházka32-6-1
33%67%
Navajo Stirling
Stirling11-0-0

How it ends

Procházka

KO/TKO21%
Submission6%
Decision6%

Stirling

KO/TKO51%
Submission2%
Decision14%

Goes the distance: 20%

What drives the number

  • Age (34 vs 28) favors Stirling
  • Striking matchup (-2.7 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Stirling
  • Elo rating (1668 vs 1709) favors Stirling
  • Durability (3 vs 0 stoppage losses) favors Stirling
  • Time since last fight (7 mo vs 4 mo) favors Stirling

Tale of the tape

34Age28
6'3"Height6'4"
80"Reach79"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
1668Elo1709
5.61Strikes landed / min6.47
5.67Strikes absorbed / min2.56
45%Striking defense58%
0.49Takedowns / 15 min0.82
68%Takedown defense71%
FeatherweightCoin flip
Aljamain Sterling
Sterling26-5-0
53%47%
Kevin Vallejos
Vallejos18-1-0

How it ends

Sterling

KO/TKO6%
Submission9%
Decision37%

Vallejos

KO/TKO29%
Submission2%
Decision17%

Goes the distance: 54%

What drives the number

  • Elo rating (1781 vs 1642) favors Sterling
  • Age (37 vs 24) favors Vallejos
  • Striking matchup (-1.5 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Vallejos
  • Reach (71" vs 68") favors Sterling
  • Grappling matchup (+0.3 takedown/sub threat per 15 min) favors Sterling

Tale of the tape

37Age24
5'7"Height5'7"
71"Reach68"
OrthodoxStanceSwitch
1781Elo1642
4.26Strikes landed / min6.12
2.15Strikes absorbed / min4.41
59%Striking defense57%
2.54Takedowns / 15 min0.66
45%Takedown defense85%
LightweightCoin flip
Dan Hooker
Hooker24-15-0
54%46%
Brian Ortega
Ortega16-5-0

How it ends

Hooker

KO/TKO27%
Submission4%
Decision24%

Ortega

KO/TKO20%
Submission17%
Decision9%

Goes the distance: 33%

What drives the number

  • Reach (75" vs 69") favors Hooker
  • Time since last fight (3 mo vs 15 mo) favors Hooker
  • Elo rating (1549 vs 1572) favors Ortega
  • Striking matchup (+1.1 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Hooker
  • Age (36 vs 35) favors Ortega

Tale of the tape

36Age35
6'0"Height5'8"
75"Reach69"
SwitchStanceSwitch
1549Elo1581
4.82Strikes landed / min3.84
4.94Strikes absorbed / min6.38
49%Striking defense49%
0.67Takedowns / 15 min0.93
77%Takedown defense55%
FlyweightSolid
Kyoji Horiguchi
Horiguchi36-6-0
33%67%
Asu Almabayev
Almabayev24-3-0

How it ends

Horiguchi

KO/TKO12%
Submission4%
Decision17%

Almabayev

KO/TKO9%
Submission34%
Decision23%

Goes the distance: 40%

What drives the number

  • Elo rating (1554 vs 1680) favors Almabayev
  • Age (35 vs 32) favors Almabayev
  • Striking matchup (+1.9 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Horiguchi
  • Reach (69" vs 65") favors Horiguchi
  • Grappling matchup (-1.6 takedown/sub threat per 15 min) favors Almabayev

Tale of the tape

35Age32
5'4"Height5'4"
69"Reach65"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
1554Elo1680
3.64Strikes landed / min2.28
2.08Strikes absorbed / min1.94
64%Striking defense54%
1.67Takedowns / 15 min4.74
61%Takedown defense44%
MiddleweightStrong
Jared Cannonier
Cannonier18-10-0
22%78%
Ikram Aliskerov
Aliskerov18-2-0

How it ends

Cannonier

KO/TKO15%
Submission1%
Decision6%

Aliskerov

KO/TKO32%
Submission4%
Decision42%

Goes the distance: 48%

What drives the number

  • Age (42 vs 33) favors Aliskerov
  • Elo rating (1620 vs 1699) favors Aliskerov
  • Grappling matchup (-1.7 takedown/sub threat per 15 min) favors Aliskerov
  • Reach (77.5" vs 76") favors Cannonier
  • Recent form (L-L-W vs W-W-W) favors Aliskerov

Tale of the tape

42Age33
5'11"Height6'0"
77.5"Reach76"
SwitchStanceSouthpaw
1620Elo1699
4.25Strikes landed / min5.56
4.36Strikes absorbed / min4.01
56%Striking defense45%
0.77Takedowns / 15 min3.82
65%Takedown defense100%

Prelims

BantamweightCoin flip
Aleksandre Topuria
Topuria7-1-0
45%55%
Santiago Luna
Luna8-1-0

How it ends

Topuria

KO/TKO9%
Submission11%
Decision24%

Luna

KO/TKO22%
Submission7%
Decision26%

Goes the distance: 51%

What drives the number

  • Reach (68" vs 74") favors Luna
  • Elo rating (1582 vs 1548) favors Topuria
  • Age (29 vs 22) favors Luna
  • Striking matchup (-1.2 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Luna
  • Time since last fight (12 mo vs 6 mo) favors Luna

Tale of the tape

29Age22
5'7"Height5'9"
68"Reach74"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
1582Elo1548
2.93Strikes landed / min4.74
2.57Strikes absorbed / min2.76
69%Striking defense68%
1.50Takedowns / 15 min2.30
100%Takedown defense57%
HeavyweightLean
Shamil Gaziev
Gaziev15-3-0
38%62%
Tallison Teixeira
Teixeira9-2-0

How it ends

Gaziev

KO/TKO27%
Submission4%
Decision7%

Teixeira

KO/TKO46%
Submission3%
Decision12%

Goes the distance: 19%

What drives the number

  • Age (36 vs 26) favors Teixeira
  • Striking matchup (-2.1 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Teixeira
  • Elo rating (1606 vs 1570) favors Gaziev
  • Reach (78.5" vs 83") favors Teixeira
  • Grappling matchup (+0.8 takedown/sub threat per 15 min) favors Gaziev

Tale of the tape

36Age26
6'4"Height6'7"
78.5"Reach83"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
1606Elo1570
2.90Strikes landed / min4.85
4.86Strikes absorbed / min4.10
45%Striking defense41%
1.03Takedowns / 15 min2.40
83%Takedown defense0%
FlyweightLean
Amir Albazi
Albazi17-3-0
42%58%
Alessandro Costa
Costa17-5-0

How it ends

Albazi

KO/TKO17%
Submission8%
Decision17%

Costa

KO/TKO24%
Submission8%
Decision26%

Goes the distance: 43%

What drives the number

  • Age (33 vs 30) favors Costa
  • Elo rating (1554 vs 1578) favors Costa
  • Striking matchup (-1.1 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Costa
  • Time since last fight (9 mo vs 4 mo) favors Costa
  • Durability (0 vs 2 stoppage losses) favors Albazi

Tale of the tape

33Age30
5'5"Height5'4"
68"Reach67"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
1554Elo1578
2.47Strikes landed / min3.77
3.88Strikes absorbed / min3.71
59%Striking defense57%
1.18Takedowns / 15 min0.70
63%Takedown defense87%
WelterweightLean
Jake Matthews
Matthews23-8-0
61%39%
Tahir Abdullayev
Abdullayev20-3-0

How it ends

Matthews

KO/TKO10%
Submission21%
Decision30%

Abdullayev

KO/TKO12%
Submission14%
Decision14%

Goes the distance: 44%

What drives the number

  • Elo rating (1662 vs 1560) favors Matthews
  • Striking matchup (+1.4 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Matthews
  • Age (32 vs 29) favors Abdullayev
  • Durability (5 vs 0 stoppage losses) favors Abdullayev
  • Grappling matchup (-0.3 takedown/sub threat per 15 min) favors Abdullayev

Tale of the tape

32Age29
5'12"Height5'10"
73"Reach—
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
1662Elo1560
3.36Strikes landed / min2.56
2.58Strikes absorbed / min2.42
61%Striking defense51%
1.36Takedowns / 15 min2.07
67%Takedown defense100%