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Results · Completed

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos

Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos

Date
Saturday, September 26, 2026
Start
5:00 PM PDT
Venue
Meta APEX, Las Vegas United States
Bouts
11

Main Card

BantamweightSolid
Raul Rosas Jr.
Rosas Jr.12-1-0
66%34%
Raoni Barcelos
Barcelos22-5-0

How it ends

Rosas Jr.

KO/TKO21%
Submission7%
Decision38%

Barcelos

KO/TKO6%
Submission5%
Decision24%

Goes the distance: 62%

What drives the number

  • Age (22 vs 39) favors Rosas Jr.
  • Striking matchup (-3.6 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Barcelos
  • Elo rating (1697 vs 1655) favors Rosas Jr.
  • Grappling matchup (-0.8 takedown/sub threat per 15 min) favors Barcelos
  • Durability (0 vs 2 stoppage losses) favors Rosas Jr.

Tale of the tape

22Age39
5'9"Height5'8"
67"Reach67"
SwitchStanceOrthodox
1697Elo1655
2.12Strikes landed / min4.77
2.17Strikes absorbed / min4.34
48%Striking defense60%
5.02Takedowns / 15 min2.88
54%Takedown defense86%
MiddleweightLean
Rodolfo Vieira
Vieira11-5-0
59%41%
Robert Bryczek
Bryczek18-7-0

How it ends

Vieira

KO/TKO5%
Submission20%
Decision34%

Bryczek

KO/TKO16%
Submission7%
Decision19%

Goes the distance: 53%

What drives the number

  • Elo rating (1567 vs 1470) favors Vieira
  • Age (37 vs 36) favors Bryczek
  • Reach (73" vs 75") favors Bryczek
  • Grappling matchup (+0.8 takedown/sub threat per 15 min) favors Vieira
  • Durability (2 vs 0 stoppage losses) favors Bryczek

Tale of the tape

37Age36
6'0"Height6'0"
73"Reach75"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
1567Elo1470
3.22Strikes landed / min2.72
4.07Strikes absorbed / min3.74
49%Striking defense54%
2.77Takedowns / 15 min0.26
60%Takedown defense79%
BantamweightCoin flip
Brady Hiestand
Hiestand9-2-0
50%50%
Rinya Nakamura
Nakamura10-1-0

How it ends

Hiestand

KO/TKO9%
Submission24%
Decision17%

Nakamura

KO/TKO18%
Submission7%
Decision25%

Goes the distance: 41%

What drives the number

  • Striking matchup (-1.2 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Nakamura
  • Reach (71" vs 68.5") favors Hiestand
  • Grappling matchup (-0.8 takedown/sub threat per 15 min) favors Nakamura
  • Age (27 vs 31) favors Hiestand
  • Elo rating (1590 vs 1599) favors Nakamura

Tale of the tape

27Age31
5'8"Height5'7"
71"Reach68.5"
OrthodoxStanceSouthpaw
1590Elo1599
2.72Strikes landed / min3.25
3.67Strikes absorbed / min1.89
52%Striking defense62%
4.13Takedowns / 15 min2.44
62%Takedown defense100%
BantamweightCoin flip
Mehemmedeli Osmanli
Osmanli13-1-0
44%56%
Ilimbek Akylbek
Akylbek11-3-0

How it ends

Osmanli

KO/TKO15%
Submission9%
Decision20%

Akylbek

KO/TKO19%
Submission11%
Decision26%

Goes the distance: 46%

What drives the number

  • Elo rating (1500 vs 1548) favors Akylbek
  • Recent form (— vs W) favors Akylbek

At least one fighter has no UFC history yet — low confidence.

Tale of the tape

22Age23
—Height5'7"
—Reach65"
SouthpawStanceOrthodox
—Elo1548
0.00Strikes landed / min2.59
0.00Strikes absorbed / min2.59
0%Striking defense54%
0.00Takedowns / 15 min6.47
0%Takedown defense0%
Women's StrawweightSolid
Melissa Amaya
Amaya9-0-0
33%67%
Valesca Machado
Machado16-4-0

How it ends

Amaya

KO/TKO9%
Submission5%
Decision19%

Machado

KO/TKO41%
Submission8%
Decision18%

Goes the distance: 37%

What drives the number

  • Elo rating (1439 vs 1539) favors Machado
  • Striking matchup (-1.8 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Machado
  • Durability (1 vs 0 stoppage losses) favors Machado
  • Reach (64.5" vs 63.5") favors Amaya
  • Recent form (L vs W-L) favors Machado

Tale of the tape

31Age30
5'5"Height5'4"
64.5"Reach63.5"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
1439Elo1539
2.65Strikes landed / min3.69
6.01Strikes absorbed / min2.79
52%Striking defense63%
0.00Takedowns / 15 min0.00
0%Takedown defense79%
LightweightStrong
Josiah Harrell
Harrell11-1-0
25%75%
Elves Brener
Brener16-6-0

How it ends

Harrell

KO/TKO8%
Submission3%
Decision13%

Brener

KO/TKO56%
Submission4%
Decision15%

Goes the distance: 28%

What drives the number

  • Elo rating (1424 vs 1548) favors Brener
  • Striking matchup (-5.1 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Brener
  • Reach (68" vs 72.5") favors Brener
  • Durability (2 vs 1 stoppage losses) favors Brener
  • Age (27 vs 29) favors Harrell

Tale of the tape

27Age29
5'8"Height5'10"
68"Reach72.5"
SouthpawStanceOrthodox
1424Elo1548
2.21Strikes landed / min4.82
8.00Strikes absorbed / min5.67
30%Striking defense51%
4.14Takedowns / 15 min0.94
0%Takedown defense71%

Prelims

Light HeavyweightCoin flip
Rodolfo Bellato
Bellato13-3-1 (1 NC)
49%51%
Christian Edwards
Edwards8-5-0

How it ends

Bellato

KO/TKO27%
Submission5%
Decision17%

Edwards

KO/TKO31%
Submission4%
Decision15%

Goes the distance: 33%

What drives the number

  • Grappling matchup (+1.3 takedown/sub threat per 15 min) favors Bellato
  • Elo rating (1510 vs 1531) favors Edwards
  • Striking matchup (+1.0 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Bellato
  • Durability (2 vs 0 stoppage losses) favors Edwards
  • Age (30 vs 27) favors Edwards

Tale of the tape

30Age27
6'3"Height6'5"
77.5"Reach78"
OrthodoxStanceSouthpaw
1510Elo1531
4.94Strikes landed / min3.55
5.73Strikes absorbed / min2.46
46%Striking defense52%
1.17Takedowns / 15 min0.00
95%Takedown defense0%
BantamweightSolid
Montel Jackson
Jackson15-4-0
66%34%
Ricky Simon
Simon22-7-1

How it ends

Jackson

KO/TKO31%
Submission3%
Decision33%

Simon

KO/TKO4%
Submission4%
Decision26%

Goes the distance: 59%

What drives the number

  • Elo rating (1697 vs 1595) favors Jackson
  • Reach (75.5" vs 69") favors Jackson
  • Grappling matchup (-0.9 takedown/sub threat per 15 min) favors Simon
  • Durability (0 vs 3 stoppage losses) favors Jackson

Tale of the tape

34Age34
5'10"Height5'6"
75.5"Reach69"
SouthpawStanceOrthodox
1697Elo1595
3.06Strikes landed / min2.99
1.42Strikes absorbed / min3.91
61%Striking defense61%
2.58Takedowns / 15 min4.47
66%Takedown defense77%
BantamweightCoin flip
John Castaneda
Castaneda21-8-1
52%48%
Alatengheili
Alatengheili17-10-2

How it ends

Castaneda

KO/TKO7%
Submission6%
Decision39%

Alatengheili

KO/TKO7%
Submission1%
Decision39%

Goes the distance: 78%

What drives the number

  • Elo rating (1522 vs 1560) favors Alatengheili
  • Striking matchup (+1.9 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Castaneda
  • Reach (71" vs 66.5") favors Castaneda
  • Durability (1 vs 0 stoppage losses) favors Alatengheili
  • Recent form (L-D-L vs W-L-W) favors Alatengheili

Tale of the tape

34Age34
5'6"Height5'5"
71"Reach66.5"
SwitchStanceOrthodox
1522Elo1560
4.81Strikes landed / min2.71
4.74Strikes absorbed / min4.96
56%Striking defense57%
1.34Takedowns / 15 min1.88
73%Takedown defense75%
Women's BantamweightLean
Norma Dumont
Dumont13-3-0
38%62%
Ailin Perez
Perez13-2-0

How it ends

Dumont

KO/TKO4%
Submission5%
Decision29%

Perez

KO/TKO6%
Submission4%
Decision52%

Goes the distance: 81%

What drives the number

  • Age (36 vs 32) favors Perez
  • Elo rating (1602 vs 1652) favors Perez
  • Striking matchup (+1.4 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Dumont
  • Grappling matchup (-0.7 takedown/sub threat per 15 min) favors Perez
  • Reach (67" vs 66") favors Dumont

Tale of the tape

36Age32
5'7"Height5'5"
67"Reach66"
OrthodoxStanceSwitch
1602Elo1652
3.79Strikes landed / min2.82
2.34Strikes absorbed / min1.79
64%Striking defense57%
1.40Takedowns / 15 min4.34
74%Takedown defense67%
Women's StrawweightStrong
Vanessa Demopoulos
Demopoulos11-8-0
18%82%
Yazmin Jauregui
Jauregui11-2-0

How it ends

Demopoulos

KO/TKO3%
Submission6%
Decision9%

Jauregui

KO/TKO22%
Submission7%
Decision54%

Goes the distance: 62%

What drives the number

  • Age (38 vs 27) favors Jauregui
  • Elo rating (1428 vs 1539) favors Jauregui
  • Striking matchup (-6.1 sig. strikes/min projected) favors Jauregui
  • Reach (59.5" vs 64") favors Jauregui
  • Durability (2 vs 2 stoppage losses) favors Demopoulos

Tale of the tape

38Age27
5'2"Height5'3"
59.5"Reach64"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
1428Elo1539
3.40Strikes landed / min7.26
5.59Strikes absorbed / min5.29
41%Striking defense55%
0.32Takedowns / 15 min0.34
25%Takedown defense100%